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AAPL data by YCharts So what was the cause of the stock price decline even though it was in a super cycle?While i Phone unit sales were above normal, investors started asking the question “what’s next” that could continue this growth rate.Below we analyze the data in the SEC filing, compare and contrast it to the previous time that happened, and call out how we expect the stock price to move in the next year.Short-term purchase obligations, a metric Apple (AAPL) reports in 10-Qs and 10-Ks, has been a fairly accurate predictor of revenues for the following quarter.

After the launch of i Phone 6 in October 2014, the stock continued to move up, reaching a high around 4 after January earnings call, moved sideways until early summer, and actually started to fall in the latter part of the year.The i Phone X product reviews, statements from Tim Cook that demand is “off-the charts,” the extreme buzz in the media – all indicate that Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) may be entering an i Phone super cycle.A specific piece of data in the recent 10-K filing gave me hard evidence that this may indeed be the case.However, Apple has figured out that by adding features that customers really care about, they can increase the ASP.They first test marketed the ASP increase with i Phone 7-Plus (was more than previous generation i Phone 6s-Plus); 7-Plus had a superior camera, and more customers opted for that than the cheaper 7, leading to a rise in overall ASP.

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As the early rumors of i Phone 6s features started to surface in late summer, and the takeaway was that there was not much new and exciting, the fear that i Phone sales had peaked took hold, and the stock tanked over 30%.

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